Home prices in some areas of Arizona are rebounding steadily despite losing more than half their value at the height of the housing crisis, according to Pro Teck Valuation Services’ Home Valuation Forecast (HVF), a monthly evaluation of real estate market conditions.
According to the Waltham, Mass.-based real estate valuation information and services provider, the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metropolitan area led its top-10 list of the strongest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), a real estate market ranking system that analyzes sales and listing activity and prices, months of remaining inventory, days on the market, sold-to-list price ratio, foreclosure percentage and REO activity.
In Scottsdale, average home prices have been climbing since 2011 and now are 20 percent below all-time highs after dropping 37.5 percent. Apache Junction, Ariz., another city within the CBSA where homes lost more than half their value during the market crash, is still 36 percent below its all-time high. Apache Junction also had more homeowners with high loan-to-value loans foreclosed, leading to a steeper drop in home prices and a slower recovery.
Other strong-performing areas on Pro Teck’s top 10 list where low inventory and hot demand are fueling home prices are: Bellingham, Wash.; Boise City, Idaho; Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.; Mount Vernon-Anacortes, Wash.; Oak Harbor, Wash.; Pueblo, Colo.; Salinas, Calif.; Stockton-Lodi, Calif.; and Wilmington, N.C.
“There are only two California markets (Salinas and Stockton-Lodi) in the top 10 this month,” Pro Teck CEO Tom O’Grady said in a news release. “We have the addition of two East Coast markets in North Carolina (Durham-Chapel Hill and Wilmington). All of the top-10 markets have fewer than four months of remaining housing inventory.”
The bottom 10 markets, however, all have five months or more of inventory; three markets actually are above 10 months. This list includes: Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, Mich.; El Paso, Texas; Huntsville, Ala.; Lake County-Kenosha County, Ill.-Wis.; McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas; Midland, Texas; Atlantic City-Hammonton, N.J.; Hagerstown-Martinsburg, Md.-W.Va.; Jacksonville, N.C.; and Saginaw, Mich.
With the exception of Midland, Texas, these CBSAs continue to be plagued with higher foreclosures as a percentage of sales in each market. Pro Teck said that changes in energy costs also may be impacting prices, but it is not known whether this is a short-term impact or something to watch out for in the future.
Pro Teck’s HVF is built using numerous housing and economic data sources. The top 750 CBSAs, as well as data down to the ZIP-code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs, are available with a corporate subscription to the service. The CBSA ranking system purely is objective and based on directional trends.