Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes jumped seven points to a level of 70 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since July 2005.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
“This notable rise in builder sentiment is largely attributable to a post-election bounce, as builders are hopeful that president-elect Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut burdensome regulations that are harming small businesses and housing affordability,” NAHB Chairman Ed Brady said in the news release. “This is particularly important, given that a recent NAHB study shows that regulatory costs for homebuilding have increased 29 percent in the past five years.”
All three HMI components posted healthy gains in December. The component gauging current sales conditions increased seven points to 76 while the index charting sales expectations in the next six months jumped nine points to 78. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic rose six points to 53, marking the first time this gauge has topped 50 since October 2005.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz also was pleased by this increase with an optimistic view of what lies for the future.
“Though this significant increase in builder confidence could be considered an outlier, the fact remains that the economic fundamentals continue to look good for housing,” Dietz said. “The rise in the HMI is consistent with recent gains for the stock market and consumer confidence. At the same time, builders remain sensitive to rising mortgage rates and continue to deal with shortages of lots and labor.”
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose six points to 51, the Midwest posted a three-point gain to 61, the South rose one point to 67 and the West registered a two-point gain to 79.